Projected Event CTL dropping

Training Plans
1

Hi all,

Just an issue that I’m curious about more than anything - I’ve been following a 32 week intermediate triathlon strength/sweet spot plan (am about 3/4s through the first sweet spot phase).
At the start of my plan, my projected event CTL was 121.
Nearly every week I have scored slightly higher than the planned TSS score, yet the projected event CTL seems to be dropping gradually. Its at 118 now. Is this a sign that I’m overtraining? From what I can tell CTL is just a weighted average of previous TSS scores, so if anything I thought mine should be higher?

The body feels great and I know I shouldn’t focus on the numbers specifically - I’m more just curious about how Training Peaks is getting this value?

Thanks for the help

2

Just had a realisation - is it because I’m deleting the extra swim sessions as I go? That would make sense. The plan offers 6 swim sessions and I do 2-3 per week instead